SYLVIA YU:
Bird flu outlook not optimistic
Despite five human deaths and about 30 outbreaks in poultry across China since the beginning of 2005, there’s little concern among locals about bird flu or the possibility that the H5N1 virus could mutate, spread between people and spark a pandemic.
"I’m not worried about it," Linda, a young Beijing woman, told me. "People are still eating at KFC restaurants and I eat two eggs every day. I don’t think it’s as bad as SARS." In fact, bird flu is worse than SARS.
And Health Ministry spokesman Mao Qunan has said he’s "not optimistic" about the bird flu outlook in China, even though more than 20 million birds have been culled and the government is working on a monitoring system in rural areas, where there are few doctors and even fewer people who can afford medical care.
Indeed, the two recent human deaths related to the H5N1 strain – A 10-year-old girl in southern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and a 35-year-old man in eastern Jiangxi province died in December – were not made public until much later. The reason, according to official media, was: "Byzantine bureaucratic procedures delayed the announcement."
In one attempt to reach the public, especially the migrant population, a hospital in northern Shanxi came up with bird flu playing cards, with cartoons that explain bird flu and its dangers and provide contact information for disease prevention centres around China.
It’s hard to say how effective these cards will be. Especially as backyard chicken owners are mostly poor and would hardly want to part with their main food supply.
The public is not entirely unaware of bird flu outbreaks. The price of poultry is down by about 20 per cent at the local supermarket and some restaurants that cater to foreigners don’t serve eggs or chicken. But it seems as though the only people seriously preparing for a potential pandemic are a few ex-pats like me. What motivates me is the health system here. While I had thought it was lacking in Canada, what with the long waits for surgery and how really hard it is to find a female family doctor. But compared to China, Canada’s health system is the best in the world.
One local doctor told me that in a worst-case pandemic scenario, the system here would undoubtedly collapse in days. How heartening. As a result of her inside scoop on the health-care system, in my mind’s eye I have imagined tens of thousands of sick people lying on the streets of Beijing with nowhere to go as the hospitals overflow with the dying. I’ve pictured myself, if I can get my hands on those white protective suits, walking down the streets of Beijing as an eyewitness to one of the darkest chapters in modern history.
A few days before China announced its first human case of bird flu last year, I was trying to take control of my initial fears – and the fact that I may have to document a pandemic – by rushing to the foreign hospital to get a flu jab.
I asked the head nurse whether they were prepared for a pandemic. "Not at all," she said with a laugh, saying she was already overloaded with work. She wasn’t too worried about it either. As well, my e-mails to a Canadian doctor in charge of pandemics at a hospital went unanswered. Apparently, he was at a symposium on pandemic preparation.
It was my ex-pat friend who had urged me to go and get the shot. She had some inside information about a certain organization’s work on the matter in China. Naturally, I freaked, thinking that she might know something really terrible — that bird flu was about to spread like wildfire. Turns out that she was more paranoid than anything and she had stocked up on canned goods, water, face masks and alcohol hand-solution faster than you could say "Armageddon." She was using alcohol spray to disinfect her hands, doorknobs and light fixtures. I thought it was a great idea. "Did you know that I had to pay $100 US at the hospital for a bunch of masks?" she said. "What a rip-off!"
In the past few months, my partner and I have had to come up with a bird flu plan. Would I stay in China or fly back to Vancouver? Where can we get Tamiflu or Relenza? Will his company supply us with Tamiflu?
I have decided to stay. I’d rather die with the love of my life. The Canadian border would probably close anyway. Our Canadian wedding is in April and we’ve had to ask our photographer and hotel to add a clause to our contracts: We wouldn’t have to pay the deposit if there should be a worldwide pandemic.
As I’ve watched or read reports of human misery in the past year, I’ve thought of what would I do if a pandemic should break out. Would I shrink back or help? In the worst of times, the very extremes come out in human nature. I’ve been revolted by news reports of people stealing children in Pakistan and been warmed by those who’ve shared all their earthly possessions with their neighbours in bleak situations. I hope I can be out there giving out food from my Armageddon stockpile. But ultimately, I hope there is no pandemic and we’ll still be discussing the next "big one" 20 years from now.
As for China, many have been watching how it’s handling the bird flu. After the SARS coverup a few years ago – still fresh in Chinese peoples’ minds, by the way – the government is careful to maintain an image of transparency and willingness to work with international bodies like the World Health Organization. But I believe more needs to be done on the public health side, so people like Linda will know that the H5N1 strain is more deadly than SARS.
